I put a poll up yesterday about an A.J. Burnett deal by the Orioles. Thus far, 1 out of 7 believes that it will happen. The rest think that it will fall through. Well, I was reading an article from Ken Rosenthal of Sportingnews.com. According to Rosenthal, talks between the Orioles and the Marlins have cooled off because the Orioles don't want to deal Daniel Cabrera. Is this a good thing or bad thing?
It could be a great move for the O's to trade for A.J. Burnett because he is in his prime at 28 years old and a dominate pitcher that pitches strikes. In the last game Burnett started, he struck out 14 batters in 6 innings. He is toting a 3.33 ERA and a 111 strikeouts with a 5-5 record. Currently, A.J. Burnett has pitched in 113 innings so far this year. He is on pace to pitch over 200 innings this season, barring any injuries. The Orioles would also be sending Jorge Julio to the Marlins in the proposed deal. I have never liked Julio because he doesn't seem to miss a bat when the game is on the line. Julio gets frustrated to fast and loses concentration when in a jam, and he doesn't have the killer instinct that is needed coming off the bench.
On the other hand, the Orioles would have to give up either Hayden Penn or Daniel Cabrera and Larry Bigbie with Jorge Julio. Larry Bigbie wouldn't be that much of a lose because the Orioles would get Juan Encarnacion in the deal. They are comparable with the only real difference being that Bigbie hits left and Encarnacion hits right. But is Cabrera or Penn worth giving up for Burnett? Pitching coach Ray Miller loves Daniel Cabrera as a pitcher. He has commented that Cabrera is a sponge when it comes to learning. This is a good quality coming from a 24 year old. He is pitching tonight, so these stats aren't totally accurate. But thus far, Cabrera has pitched in 93 innings with a 5.05 ERA. He does have 81 strike outs (20 less than Burnett) and 45 walks (5 more than Burnett). The biggest factor in this deal is the age and injury comparisions. Cabrera is 4 years younger than Burnett, and Burnett hasn't pitched a full season since 2002. Cabrera is still a wild card because of his age, and the O's don't know what it is his future, whereas Burnett is in his prime and pitching like it. Another bad hit against A.J. Burnett in my opinion, is that he pitches in the National League. The NL's batting lineups are much easier to pitch against because of the lack of a DH and the rotating of pinch hitters. NL teams doen't always put their best batters in the lineup because the need to pinch hit for the pitchers. AL's lineups are more potent throughout. So, can a National League pitcher be successful in the AL? If the Yankees are any indication, then NO. Carl Pavano and Randy Johnson both came from the NL, and both are struggling in New York (Pavano just got put on the DL today).
To be honest, I still can't decide what the O's should do. Part of me just want the Orioles to make a move that can improve their team and add another spark to a slumping team. But the other part of me says to stand pat and wait for the players to fix themselves.
I would suggest the Orioles go with what they have. If they can get Burnett, ok but I would not give up Cabrerra. We are not going to the series this year any way so go with what we have.
Posted by: Tom Cunningham at July 19, 2005 09:36 AMdoztngcacllsebptwubzuwxodvjqnvsewyphyygcxlsuuva
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